The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said that the number of operational nuclear weapons started to rise as countries long-term force modernization and expansion plans progressed.

According to SIPRI Yearbook 2023 released on Monday, the nine nuclear-armed states the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (North Korea), and Israel continue to modernize their nuclear arsenals and several deployed new nuclear weapons.

Russia and the US together possess almost 90 percent of all nuclear weapons. The sizes of their respective nuclear arsenals (i.e. useable warheads) seem to have remained relatively stable in 2022, although transparency regarding nuclear forces declined in both countries in the wake of Russias invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, SIPRI noted.

SIPRIs estimate of the size of Chinas nuclear arsenal increased from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 in January 2023, and it is expected to keep growing. Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either the US or Russia by the turn of the decade.

"China has started a significant expansion of its nuclear arsenal," said the yearbook adding that "It is increasingly difficult to square this trend with Chinas declared aim of having only the minimum nuclear forces needed to maintain its national security." The SIPRI Yearbook, in its 54th edition, reveals that the warhead stockpile is expected to grow in the future as a result of the British governments announcement in 2021 that it was raising its limit from 225 to 260 warheads. The government also said it would no longer publicly disclose its quantities of nuclear weapons, deployed warheads, or deployed missiles. Meanwhile, France continued its programmes to develop a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile, as well as to refurbish and upgrade existing systems.

India and Pakistan appear to be expanding their nuclear arsenals, and both countries introduced and continued to develop new types of nuclear delivery system in 2022. While Pakistan remains the main focus of Indias nuclear deterrent, India appears to be placing growing emphasis on longer-range weapons, including those capable of reaching targets across China, SIPRI highlighted.

North Korea continues to prioritize its military nuclear programme as a central element of its national security strategy. While North Korea conducted no nuclear test explosions in 2022, it conducted more than 90 tests of missiles. Some of these missiles, which include new ICBMs, may be capable of carrying nuclear warheads. SIPRI estimates that the country has now assembled around 30 warheads and possesses enough fissile material for a total of 5070 warheads, both significant increases over the estimates for January 2022.

Israel, which does not publicly acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons, is also believed to be modernizing its nuclear arsenal, SIPRI said.

"Most of the nuclear-armed states are hardening their rhetoric about the importance of nuclear weapons, and some are even issuing explicit or implicit threats about potentially using them," said Associate Researcher with SIPRIs Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Senior Research Associate with the FAS Nuclear Information Project, Matt Korda. "This elevated nuclear competition has dramatically increased the risk that nuclear weapons might be used in anger for the first time since World War II," he added.

"With billion-dollar programmes to modernize, and in some cases expand, nuclear arsenals, the five nuclear weapon states recognized by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty seem to be moving further and further from their commitment to disarmament under the treaty," said Director of SIPRIs Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme Wilfred Wan.

"In this period of high geopolitical tension and mistrust, with communication channels between nuclear-armed rivals closed or barely functioning, the risks of miscalculation, misunderstanding, or accident are unacceptably high," said SIPRI Director Dan Smith. "There is an urgent need to restore nuclear diplomacy and strengthen international controls on nuclear arms."

Source: Qatar News Agency