WB forecasts GDP growth in Azerbaijan

By: Amina Nazarli

The World Bank forecasts a 1.5 percent GDP growth in Azerbaijan, says the “Global Economic Prospects report released on June.

In accordance with the previous report, the growth rate of the economy was estimated at 4.4 percent this year.

In the updated report, WB forecasts 2.6 percent of GDP growth in 2016, while for 2017 the figure will rise up to 2.7 percent.

The Bank also forecasted economic growth of European and Central Asia countries, which is predicted to stand at 1.8 percent in 2015, 3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017.

Georgia’s GDP growth in 2015 is expected at two percent, Armenia – 0.8 percent, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan — 1.7 percent, Tajikistan 3.2 percent, Uzbekistan — 7.6 percent, Turkmenistan — eight percent, and Turkey — three percent.

Russia, Belarus and Ukraine will experience decline in GDP at 2.7, 3.5 and 7.5 percent, respectively.

The report notes, the tension in relations in between Russia and Ukraine, the economic sanctions caused by this tension, the probability of prolonged stagnation in the euro area, as well as lower commodity prices remain the key risk factors for the region.

Azerbaijan also has a god mark from the International Monetary Fund, which has improved the economic growth outlook of Azerbaijan for 2015. MF expected a 0.6 percent economic growth in the country for 2015 in its April forecast.

Earlier Raja Al-Marzouqi, a head of the IMF mission on Azerbaijan said that IMF expects a 1.8 percent GDP growth in the country.

“We are expecting that by the end of the year the volume of Azerbaijan’s GDP will be about 66 billion manats, while in 2016 – 66.68 billion manats. In addition, we forecast GDP growth to be 2.8 percent in 2016, while the growth of non-oil sector – 4.5 percent,” the head of the mission said.

Al-Marzouqi went on to add that a possible drop in world oil prices below $50 per barrel will not affect Azerbaijan’s national currency devaluation. It’s because, the Azerbaijani government has laid the price of oil at the level of $50 per barrel in the budget for 2016.