Mideast crude exports projected to reach 24mn bpd by 2040: Official

Total crude exports from the Middle East are projected to reach 24mn barrels per day (bpd) by 2040, according to a top government official.

The medium term exports from the region are expected to be around 36mn bpd through to 2020, Dr Ali al-Amari, counsellor for Economics and Finance, Prime Minister Office, Qatar, yesterday told the Middle East Economic Association (MEEA), organised by Doha Institute of Graduate Studies (DIGS).

The world oil demand grew by 1.54mn bpd in 2015 and anticipated to rise by 1.25mn bpd to average 94.23mn bpd in 2016 and that in the Middle East, it is projected to increase by 0.18mn bpd in 2016, he said.

For 2016, OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) Americas oil demand is projected to grow by 0.29mn bpd compared with the previous year and Chinese oil demand in 2016 is projected to increase by 0.29mn bpd compare to 0.33mn bpd in 2015, according to him.

Total non-Opec (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil supply in 2015 was revised to average 57.09mn bpd, he said, adding despite weaker oil prices, non-Opec supply in the first quarter of 2016 was a higher-than-expected by 0.41mn bpd to average 56.94mn bpd.

Middle East oil supply averaged 1.26m bpd in 2015. The total decline for 2016 is expected to be revised down due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, he said, adding total oil supply is expected to fall to 1.22mn bpd in 2016.

Finding that the oil market has undergone some substantial changes since the last three years; he said diversification is required to enhance and create opportunities for private sector.

Continues government infrastructure investment are driving the financial market growth, he said, adding there was a need to enhance capital markets and attract international inventors.

The MEEA conference comes in the backdrop of strong volatilities in oil prices that have considerable impacts on the macro economy of both developed and developing countries, depending on the extent and strength of the oil price-economic nexus of the country.

The Mena is particularly susceptible to those changes in the oil price because some member countries are major oil producers and exporters, while others are dependent on petroleum as consumers but may still benefit from the petrodollars saved by the major exporters, whether in terms of remittances, foreign aid or foreign direct investment, according to DIGS.

Source: Gulf Times