Who will win the dispute within the AKP?

There are only hours to go before the election. Voters have already made up their minds. People are curious about three points: Will the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lose its single-party majority? Will the pro-Kurdish Peoplesand’ Democratic Party (HDP) enter Parliament? Will the AKP rig the elections?
According to the latest polls, the AKP will certainly lose its single-party majority and the HDP will certainly pass the election threshold. If the AKP loses, this will absolutely bring a great relief to society. But the same thing can hardly be said about the AKPand’s interior and local organizations. If the AKP loses, this will most certainly trigger a big crack among the AKPand’s top management and grassroots. At the upper level, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will hold Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoilu responsible for the failure and will move to redesign the party.
It is known that there is a contention between pro-Erdogan and pro-Davutoilu AKP deputies and that Erdogan tends to make decisions about many critical issues at the palace before imposing those decisions on Davutoilu and his supporters. If the AKP loses, Erdogan and his supporters will take the following three steps to begin with:
1) Erdoganand’s team will come together at the palace on the night of the election to discuss options. 2) There is a very high probability that Erdogan will ask Davutoilu to resign. 3) Whether Erdogan will entrust Davutoilu with the duty of forming the government after the election is dubious. andquotI am against coalitions,andquot Erdogan remarked on a TV program, and it is likely that he would assign the task of forming a minority government to another AKP deputy.
In the face of Erdoganand’s efforts to undermine him, Davutoilu has certain options up his sleeve. Thus, Davutoilu may attempt to establish a coalition government, thereby forcing Erdogan to grow increasingly isolated. Before proceeding with this option, Davutoilu would look for support from other parties. It is very likely that other parties would agree to form a coalition government with Davutoilu on the condition that Erdogan is isolated in the presidential palace.
Aware of this possibility, Erdogan will opt for a minority government. But the party that will lend its support to this option is important. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) would be eager to make a coalition with the AKP, so it wonand’t lend support to Erdoganand’s minority government from outside.
The HDP is the best option for external support for Erdoganand’s minority government. Even though HDP Co-chair Selahattin Demirtai has closed the door on this possibility, Erdogan has a trump card in his hands: Kurdistan Workersand’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah andOcalan.
Because andOcalan and Erdogan need each other, Erdogan will send Hakan Fidan to andOcalan, asking him to convince the HDP. Thus, it is very likely that the new government will be crowned by andOcalan. Erdogan knows that this is a possibility and therefore he is not uttering a single critical remark about andOcalan. andOcalan is certainly the only and main winner of this election. It appears that andOcalan will be tasked with the duty of forming the government after the election.
If a minority government is established, one tier will be andOcalan and the other tier will be Erdogan. The possibilities rely on the assumption that Erdogan will redesign the political scene.
The possibility of Davutoilu winning against Erdogan is virtually nil. There are three reasons for this:
1) It was Erdogan who made Davutoilu prime minister and who has kept him under his shadow at all times. Davutoilu has failed to make even the AKPand’s local organizations accept him as the boss.
2) Davutoiluand’s performance is poor both in terms of election campaigning and in management. People choose to believe the lies Erdogan tells, but they find Davutoiluand’s lies funny. Therefore, the AKPand’s grassroots will prefer Erdogan.
3) Those who will support Davutoilu, like former President Abdullah Gandul and Deputy Prime Minister Bandulent Arinandc, have always been sneaky. It is virtually impossible for these figures to stand up to Erdogan.
Indeed, Erdogan moved to show his disapproval of Ganduland’s traditional remarks after Friday prayers — tax auditors were sent to a business run by Ganduland’s brother on Friday. This was a clear message sent to Gandul. This message will determine whether Gandul will side with Davutoilu after the election. Erdogan dealt the first blow for the post-election fight by launching a tax investigation into the accounts of Ganduland’s brother. In Turkish-type fights, the one who deals the first blow generally wins.

SOURCE: Today’s Zaman