What will happen if the AKP loses?

Polls suggest that it is very unlikely that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will come to power as a single party government. If they donand’t rig the election and if voters donand’t permit this, it wonand’t be surprising for the AKP to secure less than 40 percent of the national vote.
There is one fact that is not reflected in these polls: Out of fear, people cannot openly say that they wonand’t vote for the AKP. As you might have noticed, the decline in the AKPand’s electoral support has become more salient as the June 7 election approaches. The reason for this is that as the possibility of the AKP losing the election becomes more pronounced, the rate of voters who show the courage to declare that they wonand’t vote for the AKP is increasing.
The rate of voters who havenand’t yet made up their minds with two weeks left until the election is over 10 percent — this is a first compared to previous elections. It appears that the reason for this is that people tend to conceal their electoral preferences for some reason. As a matter of fact, we can hardly say that these voters havenand’t made up their minds, they are actually the silent voters.
Another reason why these voters keep silent is that they cannot say that they wonand’t vote for the AKP because of neighborhood pressure. Indeed, voting for the AKP means having moral defects. In many cases, particularly among dissident or critical groups, saying, andquotI will vote for the AKP,andquot is synonymous with saying, andquotI will lend support to thieves and corrupt politicians.andquot
In any case, fear is the common denominator of this group. It is the AKP that has created this atmosphere of fear. Thus, the AKP not only cows the dissident groups into submission, but also divides society into polarized camps so that its traditional supporters face neighborhood pressure.
The business circles are where the AKP-induced atmosphere of fear is the most intense. Since the wealth tax practice of the 1940s, this is the first time the tax system is being used as a weapon to intimidate anti-AKP businessmen. If the AKP wins the election, no one should be surprised to see another wealth tax practice implemented by the AKP.
However, if the AKP loses, this will eliminate the pressure on businessmen, leading to a revival of business.
A firm that performs political risk analysis for international investors recently told me that while Turkey is still a potential country for investment, the AKP has started to emerge as a risk factor.
If the AKP loses the election, we will see this risk factor diminish. Investors seek guarantees that they wonand’t be penalized via various methods if they end up at odds with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. If this possibility grows stronger, the foreign investments that have stalled in recent years may start to rise once again.
If the AKP loses, this will give rise to the possibility that the AKP may be forced to leave the government via democratic methods. This will in turn restore citizensand’ weakened confidence in the state of Turkeyand’s democracy who have started to assume, andquotThey will stay in power by rigging the election or resorting to other tricks.andquot
During the 13 years of the AKPand’s rule, neo-nationalist groups that used to nurture weak faith in democracy have come to realize that democracy is not a bad idea after all. However, the only obstacle to this is that they havenand’t yet seen that the ruling party may be changed through democratic means. If these groups see that the AKP can be removed from office through democratic means, democratic reforms that are usually implemented with a top-down mentality will be accepted by society.
This change in the secular and neo-nationalist groups will further accelerate the democratization of opposition parties. In this sense, the AKP losing this election is important in that it will help the votersand’ base of opposition parties internalize democracy.
Finally, if the AKP loses this election, it will give religious groups an opportunity to restore their moral values. Indeed, dissident groups have started to use the word andquotpiousandquot or andquotreligiousandquot conjointly with andquotthieves, liars, tyrants, big spenders.andquot
Religious groups continue to support the AKP with certain political justifications. If the AKP loses, these groups will have a chance to come to their senses and see their mistakes. For this reason, the AKPand’s loss means the saving of moral values and honor of religious groups.

SOURCE: Today’s Zaman