Survey: Majority of voters in East, Southeast believe HDP will pass threshold

More than half of the voters in the eastern and southeastern provinces believe the pro-Kurdish Peoplesand’ Democratic Party (HDP) will surpass the 10 percent election threshold in the June 7 parliamentary election, according to a survey by the MetroPOLL Strategic and Social Research Center conducted in May.
The MetroPOLL survey was conducted between May 9-14 with 1,003 people from eight provinces in east and southeast Turkey to measure the perception of voters in the predominantly Kurdish regions of the country, particularly regarding the HDPand’s possible success or failure in the approaching poll.
The HDP has a key significance in the election. If the pro-Kurdish party, whose deputies earlier ran as independent candidates to circumvent the 10 percent election threshold imposed by the junta regime of the Sept. 12, 1980 coup, is able to pass the threshold in this election, the number of ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) seats in Parliament will automatically fall. In other words, the AK Party will unlikely secure a big enough parliamentary majority to comfortably press for constitutional changes that would pave the way for a presidential system, keenly sought by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to replace the current parliamentary one.
Of the survey participants among the eight provinces, an average of 54.6 percent said they believe the HDP will surpass the election threshold, while 35.2 percent said they believe the party will not. The average percentage of those who said that they do not have any view on the issue is 10.2 percent.
The distribution of these percentages relating to the main political parties is illuminating. Among the HDP voters participating in the survey, 96.3 percent said they believe their party will surpass the election threshold, while just 2.1 percent said they do not believe that scenario will eventuate. Of those voters, 1.6 percent said they are indecisive on the issue. When AK Party voters were asked about the HDPand’s chances of passing the threshold, 32.2 percent were optimistic, while 56.3 percent said they do not believe the pro-Kurdish party will be able to pass the threshold. The percentage of those who refused to comment on the issue is 11.5.
In terms of the main opposition Republic Peopleand’s Party (CHP) and opposition Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) voters in the two regions, the survey reveals that 52.7 percent of CHP voters believe the HDP will pass the threshold, with 10.3 percent unsure. Among CHP voters, 25.5 percent said they do not expect the HDP to pass the threshold while 21.8 percent said that they are not sure. The majority of MHP voters (64.1 percent) said they do not believe the HDP will pass the threshold, while the percentage of those showing optimism in the HDPand’s bid is only 25.6 percent.

h2Survey: About 40 pct say HDPand’s failure will weaken settlement processh2
There are concerns among the public as to whether the settlement process — launched by the government in 2012 with the outlawed Kurdistan Workersand’ Party (PKK) to end Turkeyand’s long-standing Kurdish problem — will continue if the pro-Kurdish party is excluded from Parliament in the upcoming poll. Asked how the settlement process would be affected if the HDP failed to pass the election threshold, an average of 39.8 percent of the participants said that particular scenario would negatively affect the settlement process, while 18.6 percent said it would strengthen the process. The survey also reveals that an average 26.5 percent believe the potential threshold failure would not affect the fate of the process at all.
The survey also shows that the majority of the ruling party voters believe that any failure by the HDP to cross the threshold will not affect the settlement process either way. Of the AK Party voters across the two regions, 39.3 percent said the settlement process would in no way be affected by an HDP failure to pass the election threshold, while 27.2 percent of AK Party voters believe the process would be negatively affected if the HDP were to fail to enter Parliament. In terms of HDP voters in the regions, 70.4 percent say the settlement process will be weaker if the HDP fails in the election, while just 9.5 percent of these voters believe that, were the same scenario to play, out the process would not be affected.

h2Majority of voters against presidential system, survey showsh2
Survey participants in the two regions were also asked about Erdoganand’s passion to change the current parliamentary system into a presidential one. In response to a question asking what kind of administration Turkey should adopt, 45.5 percent of the respondents favor the current parliamentary system, while 32.2 percent favor a presidential system. The remaining 22.1 percent had no strong views on the issue.
The survey also reveals that 59.5 percent of AK Party voters believe Turkey should switch to a presidential system, while 20.7 percent of them believe the country should continue with the current system. However, the voters of all opposition parties expressed their objections against the presidential system, the survey shows. Accordingly, half of CHP voters, half of MHP voters and 76.7 percent of HDP voters said the current parliamentary system should remain, while 14.8 percent of CHP voters, 15.8 percent of MHP voters and 10.1 percent of HDP voters said they believe the country should switch to a presidential system.

SOURCE: Today’s Zaman