Predictions for possible AKP-MHP coalition

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has prepared an atmosphere to benefit himself before the elections in Turkey.
Amendments in the counterterrorism law (TMK), the Turkish Penal Code (TCK), the Code on Criminal Procedure (CMK), the Police Duties and Authorities Law (PVSK), the National Security Service Law, the District Administration Law (iiK) and last security package passed by Parliament last March enabled him to establish a de facto state of emergency and a presidential system without a constitutional amendment. As a pragmatic leader, he definitely knows how to read the results of the election. My prediction for the coming days is that he is very well aware of the coalition period, thus he will be ready to take steps backwards in order not to draw attention to himself. As the possible Justice and Development Party (AKP)-Nationalist Movement Party (MHP)oalition talks continue in the background, Erdogan looks ready to withdraw from the Kurdish peace process by giving a green light to this coalition. On the other hand, he is fully aware that the most important state posts are now occupied by MHP followers or sympathizers as the war between AKP and the Hizmet movement carries on. Thousands of policemen and other public servants who are said to be affiliated with the Hizmet movement are being sent to southeastern Turkey as exiles. Ten years ago, southeastern provinces were the places that the best educated bureaucrats were sent, including former Minister of Interior Erkan Ala, who served as as Diyarbakir governor between 2004-2007. However, today it is a place to send so-called parallel-structure-affiliated servants. The MHP rejected the peace process and the peace negotiations several times. If such a coalition happens, Erdogan will not force the coalition to stick around the peace process. Therefore, Turkey must be ready for a more nationalist atmosphere in general. The current status of the judiciary will prevent the coalition from making new demands for democratization. It will be quite easy for the AKP to lay responsibility for withdrawal from the peace process at the MHPand’s door, and nobody will blame Erdogan while MHP leader Devlet Bahandceli is yelling at the Kurds. At the same time, Erdogan will not object to the possible sending of four ministers to Supreme Criminal Tribunal as long as they do not touch to him or his family. These are my basic predictions for the consequences of the possible coalition. New members of Parliament have worked hard and spent money to be elected. An early election will not be possible for at least one year. Another general election will only be possible after the second half of 2016. The Republican Peopleand’s Party (CHP) and Peoplesand’ Democratic Party (HDP) will benefit from this situation in the mid-term. Being in the opposition will not wear out these two parties, as they can put forward more democratic demands. As the coalition will harm both the AKP and MHP, opposition parties can try to establish solidarity to bring the country to a new democratization era in the long run. American author Bryant H. McGill said, and”The world is not fair, and often fools, cowards, liars and the selfish hide in high places.and” Turkey is no exception.

SOURCE: Today’s Zaman