Poll: Turkish ruling party may lose majority in June election

Turkeyand’s ruling AK Party may lose its parliamentary majority in a June 7 election and be forced to form either a coalition or a minority government, according to a poll privately commissioned by Turkish business and cited in newspapers on Friday.
The poll by research firm Konda showed support for the AK Party dropping to 40.5 percent from 49.8 percent at the last general election in 2011, according to bankers who have seen the research and highlights published by Turkish newspapers.
The poll, which has not been made public by Konda, also showed the pro-Kurdish Peoplesand’ Democratic Party (HDP) would garner 11.5 percent of the vote, above the 10 percent threshold needed to enter parliament.
The prospect of the AK Party being unable to form a single-party government unnerved financial markets.
The lira stood at 2.5960 to the dollar, weakening from late on Thursday and underperforming major emerging markets peers. The main stock index was down 0.7 percent by 07:00 a.m., also weaker than peers.
Economists and traders say markets have been pricing in a simple majority for the AK Party, albeit a weaker one than in 2011.
andquot[Turkish] asset traders should expect more poll-driven volatility … as we have only 10 more trading days until the general elections,andquot Iiik andOkte, investment strategist at Istanbul-based TEB Investment, said in a note to clients.
The Konda poll predicted less than 29 percent of the vote for the main opposition Republican Peopleand’s Party (CHP) and less than 15 percent for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
Konda has built a strong reputation over years for its research on parliamentary elections, although it overestimated support for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a presidential election last August.

SOURCE: Today’s Zaman