EMRE – Predictions about 2015

Predictions about 2015The Justice and Development Party (AKP)ame to power to change the existing corrupted and authoritarian regime. In its first two terms, the government did in fact successfully fight against the authoritarian regime and implemented reforms to remove some of its former practices.

In its first two terms, we should admit, the AKP government managed to remove low-level corruption that low-ranking civil servants were involved in. Policies like these to fight against minor corruption helped the AKP, so that people started thinking, andldquoA government finally does something against corruption and the authoritarian nature of the regime.

andrdquoSince 2011 however, when the AKP removed the final elements of the old regime, the party and its supporters took shelter under the regimeand#39s infrastructure, the Constitution and authoritarian institutions in order to use them against their enemies.As the AKP implemented similar authoritarian rules, the government slowly lost its legitimacy.

This started in 2011, and 2014 was a turning point as the AKP was no longer the defender of peopleand#39s rights and was not fighting against corruption. People started thinking that corruption has increased and that the AKP dictates its own will to people.

Under these circumstances one can assume that the year 2015 will not be an easy year for the AKP government for at least three reasons.First, the upcoming election will be an indicator of Prime Minister Ahmet DavutoIluand#39s performance and his ability to fight against corruption that high-ranking AKP officials were involved in.

Now the AKPand#39s corruption has become visible. From the villages to the cities people are talking about corruption that the AKP officials were involved in.

On the other hand, Prime Minister DavutoIlu promises that he will fight against corruption. For DavutoIlu 2015 will be the year to prove how he will fight against the corruption that the AKP officials are at the center of.

If DavutoIlu sincerely chooses to fight against corruption, he needs to fight against his own party. Otherwise, he needs to find an effective tool to cover up the corruption that his party officials are involved in while at the same time making it seem as if he is fighting against corruption.

Second, the Kurdish question will dominate debate. The AKP government so far has successfully delayed a confrontation with the Kurdistan Workersand#39 Party (PKK) and manipulated Turkish Kurdish communities to believe there is a real peace process under way that will bring peace to Turkey.

The year 2015 is going to be the year that the AKP will face the consequences of the so-called peace process. Either they have to keep their promises given to the PKK, set the leader of the party, Abdullah calan, free, pass laws allowing PKK militants to enter politics without laying down their arms or have to face the consequences and clash with a much more powerful PKK, which will lead to losing control of the Kurdish region.

Third, it seems that the AKP governmentand#39s economic performance is not as good as it was in previous years. The intervention of President Recep Tayyip ErdoIan and his close aide, YiIit Bulut, in the economy affects its structure.

In addition, ErdoIanand#39s lack of respect for the law in his dealings with businessmen creates fear among investors and businesses about making investments in Turkey. Numbers indicate that even Turkish companies tend to pull out from Turkey and make investments in foreign countries.

In 2014 alone Turkish companies made $4.4 billion in investments in foreign countries that could have been kept inside Turkey if ErdoIan had not bullied businesses that he considers andldquoenemiesandrdquo of his regime.

Another prediction I make is that ErdoIanand#39s bitter fight with the Gulen movement will come to a dead end. He has used all of his arguments and all available tools to punish the Gulen movement.

When he launched his campaign against the movement people tended to believe in him however, he made nonsense claims and showed no evidence supporting his claims people started realizing that he is not sincere and that all he does is manipulate the facts. I predict 2015 will be the year for ErdoIan and the AKP government either to prove his claims or to accept that he bullied a group of people for his own political gain, which in turn would prove his authoritarianism.

SOURCE: Today’s Zaman