EMRE – Are Cizre clashes heralding an operation?

Are Cizre clashes heralding an operation?Just one day after Prime Minister Ahmet DavutoIluand#39s remark that the government has put the settlement process back on the right track, violence erupted in the eastern part of Turkey, specifically, in Cizre. Kurdistan Workersand#39 Party (PKK) militants attacked members of Hizbollah and there are reports indicating that some Hizbollah members were killed.

Social media reports also indicate that armed PKK militants took to the streets in both Cizre and Hakkari. Representatives of Huda-Par, which is what the Turkish Hizbullah is known as, made statements noting that they informed state officials of the incidents but they did nothing to stop violence.

In addition, the PKK had cautioned Patriotic Revolutionist Youth Movement (YDG-H) units and told them that they would be maintaining security in the region. So where did these Cizre clashes come from at a time when everything was supposed to be back on track?Let me explain the situation briefly: one of my sources in the region contacted me, saying, andldquoThe AKP [Justice and Development Party] will initiate an operation against the PKK soon, but this is a setup they will try to give the impression that the AKP is not cooperating with the PKK.

andrdquo I have faith in my source, but this allegation was just extreme. I wrote a column relaying these allegations from my source, but I did not publish it before confirming them through other sources.

Two other sources, noting that they do not have concrete information to confirm this allegation, agreed that this would not be an extreme and unlikely scenario. So I posted two tweets on Twitter on Dec.

22 and said I was receiving information on the PKK which I was trying to confirm Another source I contacted two days later noted that an operation in the region was pretty likely and that some intelligence agents were provoking the people in the region he further said I would not be wrong if I said on Twitter that the AKP would initiate a fake operation against the PKK. So I posted a tweet where I said the AKP could initiate an operation against the PKK two days after this tweet, violence erupted in the region.

I suppose that currently the groundwork for that fake operation is being laid down. If the information my sources passed on me is true, this means that there is something strange going on.

What my sources told me is that the Cizre clashes could be the initial sign of a conspiracy. My sources told me this before the Cizre clashes: the AKP may initiate an operation to cover up the allegations that the AKP made a deal with the PKK and to attract the support of nationalist voters.

To this end, the government is holding preparations, devising strategies and making plans.One aspect of this story relates to the Kobani incidents and their impact upon the elections.

The AKP realized that it lost its support among Kurdish voters after the Kobani protests. The Peoplesand#39 Democratic Party (HDP) also reached the same conclusion and decided not to nominate independent candidates in the upcoming elections.

In other words, President Recep Tayyip ErdoIanand#39s statements that Kobani was about to fall created a state of disappointment among the Kurdish support base of the AKP. It seems that the HDP would attract their support now.

While this was happening, the nationalists thought that the AKP made a deal with the PKK in the Southeast the AKP, realizing that it would also lose the nationalist vote, is working on a new strategy. To this end, it now plans to hold operations in the Southeast.

By taking this move, the AKP would ensure that the people and the media would discuss the operation and that the nationalist voters would be back on their side. In addition, it would address the perception that the AKP is cooperating with the PKK and the growing criticisms raised against the AKP.

The AKPand#39s goalsThe AKP seeks to attain the following goals through the operation it would conduct in the Southeast:1- There is now a popular perception that the government made a deal with the PKK which now controls the Southeast the operation would eliminate this perception.2- There is also a popular perception that ErdoIan bowed to PKK leader Abdullah calan in the settlement process and that the government relies on the Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK) to maintain security in the region.

They want to address this.3- The presidential palace is now viewed as a symbol of extravagance.

The people react to this because miners die in mining sites whereas the president buys extremely expensive wineglasses for his palace. This needs to be addressed.

4- In fact, ErdoIan even relies on the birth control debate to ensure there is no discussion about the palace. But the people pay attention to it anyway.

So measures are needed to ensure that the people forget about it.5- There is also the perception that the AKP picked certain prosecutors to ensure that the December 2013 corruption file is sealed.

The AKP is now facing a huge problem because of this perception. The mother of one of the police officers who were placed under arrest because he conducted the corruption operation summarizes the overall sentiments of the people: andldquoYour son is involved in corruption but my son is arrested.

Is this justice?andrdquo So measures are needed to address this sentiment and perception.6- Reports of corruption in the government are abundant.

ErdoIan is also associated with hatred, arrogance and extravagance in the public perception. This perception needs to be changed.

7- The AKPand#39s image was seriously undermined because of nepotism in the recruitment of public servants. Even though millions of people took civil service exams, relatives of AKP figures are employed in public office without having taken any examination.

The AKP is trying to justify this by citing previous examples of the same thing being done, but the people are not convinced by this.8- The world media pays close attention to the reports indicating that the media is repressed under an authoritarian regime in Turkey.

ErdoIan wants to establish good relations with the world, even though he gives the impression that he does not care about what other countries think. However, ErdoIan cannot go back to a democratic system He wants to maintain relations with the world in another way.

In short, he wants to tell the world that he is the unchangeable power and ruler in Turkey and that they have to go through him if they want relations with Turkey. To give this message, he was to win the upcoming elections.

If his and his former partyand#39s support base declines below 43 percent, ErdoIan will not have peace even in his huge palace. To win, the AKP will have to rely on a nationalistic discourse.

And to prove that, they believe that they have to conduct a military operation.The AKP needs a new confrontation so as to prevent the likely upcoming reports of corruption and irregularities.

This has to be different from the one with the Hizmet movement. The argument it relied on in its fight against the Hizmet movement is no longer convincing.

They offer no evidence of their allegations against the so-called parallel structure. They are fabricating evidence from TV series.

But the people did not believe this scamIn addition, the fight with the Hizmet movement does not attract the support of the nationalists it has an opposite effect now. The nationalist circles are bothered by the AKPand#39s fight against the Hizmet movement and its rapprochement with the PKK.

The news reports indicating that the PKK is expanding its sphere of influence in the Southeast attract the reaction of the nationalists.The AKP sees this in the public polls it sponsors.

calan is making his demands before the elections but there are also growing concerns by the nationalist voters about the settlement process. The AKP thinks they should keep the nationalist voters as their supporters given that they already made a deal with calan.

For this reason, an operation could be conducted in the region. There is not an agreement over the scope and goal of this operation yet, but my sources in the Southeast do not find it unlikely that it will happen.

There is also information that some preparations are being made for this operation.I should, however, underline that this is not an anti-terror operation.

It would be an operation where the military and the police would be used to attract support in the upcoming elections. Those who plan this operation actually plan on sacrificing the military and the police for the sake of electoral support, not the country.

SOURCE: Today’s Zaman