A correlation between the SNP and the HDP

Voters in the UK gave the Conservative Party the biggest share in the elections.

The Conservatives won a 12-seat majority in Parliament, as the Labour Party was almost wiped out by the Scottish National Party (SNP), and the Liberal Democrats suffered major losses. The SNP, with its policy of supporting an independent Scotland, was the biggest winner, and they’ve taken the lion’s share of seats in Parliament. Leaders Ed Miliband of the Labour Party and Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats resigned from their posts immediately.

In my opinion, the Labour Party lost against the SNP, not against the Conservative Party. Around 50 seats went to the SNP from Labour. Previously, Miliband had declared that he would not join in a coalition with the SNP. This, I think, was the cause of his defeat. He thought it was a wise move to deny the Conservatives’ claim that he was planning to assume power on the coattails of the SNP, thus falling into their trap.

Although there are many differences between countries, policies, societies, histories and characters, I think there is a correlation between the Scottish SNP and the Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). Both political movements are on the rise according to polls in 2015. The center-left Labour Party was taking votes in Scotland, contrary to the Turkish center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), which was not able to take votes in eastern and southeastern Turkey. Besides, the CHP has not held sole power since 1946, and the last time they were in coalition was 1996, although they have been the main opposition in Turkey since 2002.

It would have been wise for Miliband to have been allied with the SNP, though this opportunity was missed. There is a lesson to learned by Kemal Kilicdaroilu, the leader of the CHP. I think the only way to defeat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoilu’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) would be to form a coalition between the CHP and the HDP after the general election on June 7.

The HDP is taking at least 70 percent of the votes in the eastern part of Anatolia, against the 10 percent of total votes needed to pass the threshold, whereas the AKP is second in the region. If the HDP can pass the voting threshold, they can get 60 to 70 seats in Parliament, just like the SNP. Otherwise, the AKP will take those 60 to 70 seats from the region, possibly holding 367 of the total 550 seats, giving it a chance to amend the constitution without a referendum and establish the presidential system Erdogan promotes.

The SNP achieved the major increase in votes that polls predicted. Most polls in Turkey indicate that the HDP will garner more than the 10 percent needed to establish a base in Parliament. Miliband didn’t foresee the potential of the SNP, but Kilicdaroilu and the CHP must be aware of these Turkish polls. The HDP and the CHP, and their leaders Selahattin Demirtai and Kilicdaroilu, are coming from a leftist tradition that gives them enough ground to stand in solidarity against Erdogan’s AKP. Unlike the UK’s Conservatives, Turkey’s AKP has become an Islamofascist party over the last five years, narrowing rights and liberties, and intervening in private life. Banning YouTube and Twitter, as well as alcohol on university campuses, exerting pressure on the judiciary and using excessive police force to crush peaceful demonstrations are only some examples from this new era.

Miliband said: “Let the message go out — a new generation has taken charge of Labour, which is optimistic about our country, optimistic about our world and optimistic about the power of politics. We are optimistic and together we will change Britain.” He did not get the chance to change his country. Are we optimistic about Turkey?