Toward a Syrian peace?

I remember repeatedly writing here that Turkey and its allies must try to find a sort of South African style solution in Syria, where all parties to the conflict are guaranteed that they will be harmed and they will be equal citizens of society. I added that I was aware of the utopian dimensions of this hope, but that it could at least be offered. My second suggestion was to offer Russia military influence and bases in Syria when the conflict ended. This is probably what we are probably to get now; but it is too late for the hundreds of thousands of people who have already died and the several million who have become refugees under the most terrible conditions. Moreover, Syria has been wrecked. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s regime and its allies prematurely encouraged the Syrian opposition to wage a hopeless fight against a very strong regime that has been fiercely supported by Iran, Russia and their allies.

As far as we can see, the US has agreed to a continuation of the Assad regime and it may even agree to a Russian military presence in Syria, which has been weakened militarily. Such a regime would not be a problem to the Kurds or Israel, for the Kurds will have their own autonomous region (A gift to the Erdogan regime from Assad!) and Russia will not allow Syria to threaten to Israel. The Assad regime will have to live peacefully with the Sunni Arabs who have been sick and tired of the civil war. In such a scenario, the net loser is the Caliph Erdogan regime, which had been dreaming of creating an Ikhwan-World (Muslim Brotherhood) in Tunisia, Egypt and Syria, under the leadership of Erdogan. If Erdogan does not have to de facto give away Turkey’s Kurdish region, he should consider himself lucky. Moreover, if the Assad regime remains in power, it will push hard to get the Erdogan regime to be tried for aiding “terrorists.” Russia will surely push for such a move. This will make the Erdogan regime considerably weaker than ever, to the dismay of the wishes of its Western allies. Coming from dreams of joining the Shanghai Cooperation Agreement to the point we are now is a terribly fascinating but heart-breaking journey, with a fatal bill for Turkey. This is the cost of dreaming about a fake caliphate!

It seems Turkey is unhappy with the Russian-American deal in Syria, and has been trying to turn it into its favor. Well, it seems this is impossible. And after downing the Russian fighter jet, Putin has shown Erdogan’s regime that he can severely punish Turkey. In the meantime, the Erdogan regime has agonizingly discovered that it cannot provoke NATO into its little games.

Who knows, maybe Israel will feel more secure with a Syria under Russian control and it may agree to a two-state solution in Palestine in pre-1967 borders. Maybe.


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