Polling companies come up short as AK Party regains overall majority

Since the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) regained an overall majority in the general election on Sunday, polling companies have been labeled the biggest losers of the election process, as none of the major polling companies had predicted a result even close to that attained by the AK Party.
Many polling companies were left out in the cold regarding their predictions of the outcome of the parliamentary election on Sunday, with most of them placing the AK Party vote at between 38 percent and 44 percent. Many had also indicated that the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) would receive between 14 and 15 percent.
Similarly, the pro-Kurdish Peoplesand’ Democracy Party (HDP) was predicted to receive between 12 and 13 percent of the valid votes.
However, contrary to the predictions of the polling companies, on Sunday the AK Party stunned the nation as it recuperated losses incurred in the June 7 general election, raking in 49 percent of the valid votes to field 316 deputies. The main opposition Republican Peopleand’s Party (CHP) received 25.5 percent, allowing it to send 134 deputies to parliament, instead of the 132 it sent in June.
The MHP, which suffered the biggest loss, saw its vote share shrink to 12.14 percent and managed to field only 40 deputies, half as many as it had in June. Meanwhile, the HDP also lost votes on Sunday, finishing the night with 10.8 percent, allowing it to field only 59 deputies, compared to 80 in June.
The AK Party victory means it will send 316 deputies to the new parliament, allowing it to change legislation and unilaterally choose the speaker of parliament. The AK Party, however, has failed to obtain a sufficient number of votes to amend the Constitution in line with President Recep Tayyip Erdoganand’s wishes to install a presidential system in Turkey, paving the way for one-man rule.
h2 Head of Gezici polling company: We never contemplated 49 percenth2 Murat Gezici, the head of Gezici Research and Polling Company told Todayand’s Zaman they saw the rise of the AK Party in the last poll before the election. and”We calculated that the AK Party vote would be between 43 and 45 percent,and” he said. and”But we never contemplated 49 percent.and”
According to Gezici, the largest factor increasing the AK Partyand’s votes was uncertainty about the countryand’s future.
A settlement process launched in 2012 by the government in cooperation with Abdullah andOcalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workersand’ Party (PKK), to settle the Kurdish issue and years of violence by giving the Kurdish minority broader rights was halted in July after the PKK ended a cease-fire.
Gezici said that the electorate hid their preferences until the last moment. and”The electorateand’s agenda changed from the ailing economy to the security threat,and” he said.
and”The AK Party appealed to both security issues and reform in the economy,and” said Gezici, which according to him, were the two most important questions for the electorate. and”The opposition parties did not satisfy these questions,and” he said.
On Oct. 10, a twin bomb attack occurred in Ankara, the deadliest in Turkeyand’s history with a declared death toll of 102 and more than 500 injured. Acting Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoilu said that the government suspects either the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) or the terrorist PKK of organizing the attack.
On the night of the election, Republican Peopleand’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kiliandcdaroilu noted that a total of 400 people had died in the period between the June 7 election and Sunday.
The polling company coming closest to determining the outcome of the election was A G Research, which stated that the AK Party would receive 47.2 percent in its last poll before the election. In the run-up to the election, the A G polling company gave the CHP 25.3 percent, the MHP 13.5 percent and the HDP 12.2 percent.
h2 Security threats source of mistaken predictions, says head of polling companyh2 and”This was the first election where we tested the electorate on issues of security and stability,and” said Professor andOzer Sencar, the head of MetroPOLL Research Center.
The election on Sunday was the first of its kind to be held under such and”intense security threats,and” said Sencar, attempting to explain how the polling companiesand’ results turned out to be so skewed.
and”Until the very last day, the percentages of undecided votes were very high,and” he added. and”If we had conducted our last poll closer to Nov. 1, we would have had better results.and”
Sencar maintained that the polling companies were mistaken in their results for two reasons: and”Firstly, the electorate who left the AK Party for the MHP or the HDP were unsure about returning to the AK Party after the violence began.and”
and”Secondly,and” said Sencar, and”they decided to vote for the AK Party, but did not want to disclose this publicly.and”
Sencar said on Sunday via his Twitter account that the AK Party had won an unexpected victory and he admitted that polling companies had been unable to analyze the reaction people had to opposition parties. and”We were unsuccessful,and” he wrote.


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