Butterfly effect

We have seen a dark period that the Justice and Development Party (AKP), particularly political Islamists, will always feel ashamed of.
We are unable to say that this period has ended. It has been a period of learning and teaching. We have seen from experience that a corrupt political administration can cause a serious disruption because the necessary checks and balances were not implemented in the system before. We have paid a huge price for this experience. Despite grave violations of fundamental democratic principles, the AKP is still able to attract the support of a good segment of society. Polling companies have mostly noted that support for the AKP increased shortly before the Nov. 1 election. Even those pollsters that previously argued support for the AKP was at 38-39 percent have said they would receive 43 percent of the vote.
Some have argued the Ankara massacre contributed to the increased popular support for the AKP. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoilu also said support for them had increased. The impression that there is support for the AKP in the polls is something that the AKP strongly needs. Pro-government polling companies have announced results that indicate greater support for the AKP since June 8. One of them even argued the AKPand’s current support is around 47 percent. This has raised some suspicions over whether these attempts to indicate greater support for the AKP are because of attempts to lay the grounds for election fraud.
The widespread belief among people that there will be election fraud is something that the AKP and political Islamists should be ashamed of because there were no such concerns in this country since the 1946 election.
Fuat Avni, a Twitter phenomenon whose prophecies have so far been confirmed over the last few years, recently argued there were preparations for election fraud. This has raised concerns and fears.
Election fraud is a primitive method that only those who cannot tolerate a loss in a political race resort to. We have seen that those who are unwilling to form a coalition would resort to any method to stay in power. The growing attention on election frauds shows that even pro-government polling companies do not believe their arguments about popular support for the AKP. Why would a party that has 47 percent of popular support resort to election fraud?
Under normal conditions, support for the AKP may not yield different results whether or not it is 38-39 percent or more. Only two things might lead to a change: election fraud or the preferences of professional voters who cast strategic votes. Both will have a butterfly effect that is more important than themselves. I analyzed all the 85 election districts in Turkey and believe the results will be almost the same in 32 of them while the number of seats won by the parties may change by small margins in 53 districts.
Only in 18 districts does the AKP have a chance of winning additional deputies. The AKP will lose this aantage if a small number of strategic voters who, due to concerns over democracy, support the strongest rival of the AKP. On the other hand, the AKP is pretty close to losing additional seats in 35 election districts. The greater turnout rate abroad may cause a decline in support for the AKP. The young voters who are going to the ballot box for the first time are also mostly against the AKP. All are elements that can increase the impact of the butterfly effect of strategic voters. They may have a significant butterfly effect on the overall outcome of the election. Even if the AKP attracts the support of additional 1-2 percent of voters, the number of its seats in Parliament may fall below 250. What we expect is a butterfly effect that would discourage the AKP administration from an authoritarian style.

SOURCE: TODAY”S ZAMAN

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